ANALYSIS OF THE MATHEMATICAL APPARATUS FOR FORECASTING THE TECHNICAL CONDITION OF THE EQUIPMENT OF THE RIVER AND SEA TRANSPORT

Abstract

The article analyzes the mathematical apparatus for predicting the technical state of equipment for river and sea transport to improve their performance.

A general model of the process of operation of ship equipment for river and sea transport is proposed, based on the idea of ​​predictive control of the individual reliability of ship equipment samples.

This idea makes it possible to implement the specified model in the operating conditions of the vessel with a minimum of diagnostic data, determining the parameters of a random process at the control points and providing a minimum of the mean square approximation error in the intervals between these points.

It is proposed to formulate the process of operation of ship equipment for river and sea transport from the sequential solution of the following tasks: analysis of the influence of the reliability of elements on the reliability of equipment samples; determining the best strategy for servicing elements of equipment samples based on predicting the behavior of their parameters; determination of the optimal individual regulations for conducting maintenance operations; determination of the scope of operations and the number of complex types of maintenance (repair); determination of optimal regulations for carrying out complex types of services and assessment of the efficiency of the operation process.