METHOD OF FORECASTING THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANALYSIS AND SYSTEMS OF VESSELS OF ENERGY INSTALLATIONS

Abstract

In the article the approach of statistical estimation and forecasting of the parameter of the failure of the units of the automatic control system of ship power plants according to the operational observation data is proposed. This allows us to form the management of the technical state of the aggregates, which is essential in solving the problem of providing a given level of reliability of complex systems of this type.

The use of nomograms to refine the statistical estimates of the bounce flow parameter made it possible to construct a time series of values of this indicator in the classical form, and to perform the forecasting of the indicator using the combined autoregressive model and the integrated sliding average.

As a result of the forecast, the non-stationary nature of the function of the parameter of the flow of failures was detected, depending on the work, which may be a sign of the gradual aging of the product.