METHOD OF GENERALIZED RISK ASSESSMENT OF MARITIME ACCIDENTS IN THE SYSTEM OF NAVIGATION SAFETY MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The article deals with the method of generalized risk assessment of maritime accidents in the system of navigation safety management, which considers the most complex classes of maritime accidents (very serious accidents, serious accidents), types of factors affecting the safety of navigation. The method defines acceptable and unacceptable risks for each maritime accident using a curvilinear trapezoid of acceptable risk. With the help of such a trapezoid it is possible to increase the accuracy of the assessment of the generalized risk of maritime accidents using sea and river transport. At the same time, the hypothesis of the distribution of maritime accidents according to Poisson's law is substantiated based on statistical data on very serious maritime accidents, serious accidents, maritime incidents and incidents for maritime and river transport for the period from 2006 to 2021. The analysis showed that for water transport for very serious and serious accidents there is no reason to reject the null hypothesis of a Poisson distribution of the population. A formal representation of the risk of occurrence of maritime accidents, considering the factors affecting the safety of navigation and the expected average damage, is performed. The risks used in the work for each water transport (sea, river) are considered both by classes of maritime accidents (very serious accidents, serious accidents) and by types of factors affecting the safety of the vessel itself, man, environment and cargo.