JUSTIFICATION OF THE CHOICE OF KNOWLEDGE FORMALISATION APPARATUS FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR THE PREVENTION OF SHIP COLLISIONS

Abstract

The aim of the study is to prevent and reduce the number of ship collisions at sea by studying and analysing the causes of such events and justifying the choice of a knowledge formalisation apparatus based on relevant international rules for decision support systems. This goal is achieved by analysing open statistics on ship collisions in the world, the totality of their causes and justifying the choice of a knowledge formalisation apparatus for a promising decision support system for a ship's master. The basis of the International Regulations for the Prevention of Collisions at Sea, 1972 (COLREGs) is the safe separation of a ship from a certain finite number of ships at a given distance by considering the regularities of manoeuvring characteristics of ships and their controlling influences. Failure to comply with the standard procedures and rules of COLREGs is the most important cause of ship collisions. The reasons for non-compliance with COLREGs are grouped into three classes: mistakes made by navigators in applying international rules, forced deviation from COLREGs, and ignoring these rules. A brief analysis of the formalisation of ship collision avoidance rules used in decision support systems for navigators shows that these rules describe only pairwise interaction of ships. To form an adequate picture of the navigation situation and the actual situation, and to create scenarios for the development of the current situation, it is proposed to consider the full set of all interacting pairs. A significant scientific result for considering the inaccuracy of the available numerical and linguistic information is the conclusion that interval estimates of ship movement parameters based on fuzzy sets of the second type should be used as the main apparatus for formalising the rules for preventing ship collisions.

To prevent ship collision, a two-pronged approach is proposed, according to which, on the one hand, procedures on the bridge are improved, continuous study of COLREGs and rules for theoperation of their vessels by crew members is ensured, and, on the other hand, a decision support system for the navigator is created, based on formalised COLREGs rules governing the processes of ship divergence.